A good discussion topic from David:
how do you know if you're good enough to be seriously considered for the schools you want to get into? How do I know what my chances are for the schools on my list? Or is it a crap shoot for everyone (as long as we're competent writers, of course)?
I understand the difficulty in determining something as subjective as writing talent, but we should all have a good idea of our own ability, right? How else can I make an informed and balanced decision regarding which schools I apply to?
From the schools' end, you can evaluate historical selectivity and funding packages (a determinant of selectivity) to determine your statistical chances of getting in, but how does one evaluate one's own writing ability against the current of other applicants?